If voters approve new cannabis measures on Tuesday, Nebraska, Florida, and North Dakota could see a massive boost to their economies through regulated marijuana sales—potentially reaching $3 billion in just the first year of operation.
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Collectively, these markets could hit around $4.3 billion in annual sales by their fourth year, according to projections from MJBiz Factbook.
Most of that revenue would come from Florida if voters pass adult-use sales in the general election. With its 22 million residents and around 140 million annual tourists, Florida’s adult-use market could bring in nearly $2.9 billion once it’s up and running, putting it in league with cannabis giants like California and Michigan.
North Dakota, while smaller, could still see a substantial $70 million in adult-use sales during its first full year if voters back Initiated Measure 5. Nebraska’s new medical marijuana market, should voters approve it, is expected to generate $50 million in sales.
If both Florida and North Dakota establish recreational markets, about 60% of Americans would have access to legal adult-use cannabis, while 78% would have access to medical marijuana if Nebraska’s medical cannabis initiatives pass.
Adult-use is also on the ballot in South Dakota, but unlike other states, this year’s Initiated Measure 29 doesn’t include provisions for setting up a regulated market.
Florida Amendment 3
There’s little question that Florida would be a top cannabis market if Amendment 3 passes, given the state’s large population—home to 7% of all Americans—and booming tourism industry. Florida already has a strong medical marijuana program with about 883,000 registered patients, who spend roughly $2 billion annually on medical cannabis.
Polls suggest that Amendment 3 has the support to pass, but the question is when sales would actually start. While the new law would technically take effect in May, the Republican-led Legislature could create delays. Some in the industry expect lawmakers might adopt Ohio’s approach, allowing sales to proceed while they finalize related legislation.
If Florida’s recreational market launches as planned, the state’s existing medical marijuana infrastructure could make it one of the largest adult-use markets in the country. First-year recreational sales are projected to hit $2.9 billion and could surpass $4.1 billion by the fourth year.
Nebraska Initiatives 437 and 438
Nebraska voters were close to legalizing medical marijuana in 2020, but the state Supreme Court ruled the proposal violated a single-subject rule, removing it from the ballot. This year, advocates have addressed the issue by introducing two separate measures: one for medical marijuana use and possession and another to create an agency to regulate the program.
Despite last-minute legal challenges, recent polls indicate that 59% of Nebraskans support medical marijuana. With a population of around 2 million, Nebraska’s medical marijuana market could generate up to $100 million annually over time.
If voters approve both Initiatives 437 and 438, sales could reach $50 million in the first year and around $102 million by year four.
North Dakota Initiated Measure 5
This will be North Dakota’s third attempt to legalize recreational cannabis since 2018. Polls suggest that passing Initiated Measure 5 could be an uphill battle this time around, but if successful, it would set up a licensed adult-use market by October 2025.
Although North Dakota is sparsely populated, it has more residents than some states with established recreational markets, such as Alaska and Vermont. Early adult-use sales would likely benefit from the state’s existing medical marijuana market, which supports nearly 10,000 patients. Medical marijuana sales grew from 2020 to 2021 and have since stabilized, reaching $22.4 million for the fiscal year ending in June 2024.
If North Dakota’s recreational market launches, it could generate $70 million in its first full year, with potential to reach $115 million by year four. Sales could be influenced by the tax rate set by the North Dakota Legislature, as the measure itself doesn’t specify a rate. The current financial estimate on the ballot is based on a 5% tax, but higher taxes could impact market growth.
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