As Florida voters prepare to weigh in on Amendment 3, a proposed ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana, recent polling shows mixed signals on its chances of passing.
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Although a Victory Insights poll from early November found 56% support for the measure, that falls short of the 60% threshold required for it to pass as a constitutional amendment in Florida. This leaves the outcome uncertain, though analysts note it remains within the margin of error.
Support and Opposition for Amendment 3
Proponents of Amendment 3, led by the campaign Smart & Safe Florida, have garnered significant financial backing from the cannabis industry, particularly from major companies like Trulieve. The campaign’s messaging has focused on the benefits of legalization, particularly in light of Florida’s existing medical marijuana program, which serves nearly a million residents. Endorsements from prominent figures such as former President Donald Trump, the 2024 GOP presidential nominee, and bipartisan support from state lawmakers have strengthened the campaign’s visibility. Advocates argue that legalization will reduce opioid use, support veterans, and generate significant tax revenue for Florida.
However, the amendment faces opposition from key political figures, including Governor Ron DeSantis, who has voiced strong anti-cannabis rhetoric. At a recent event, DeSantis criticized the amendment as poorly written and redundant, pointing to Florida’s existing medical cannabis program. He further argued that legalization would benefit large corporations like Trulieve while failing to include provisions for home cultivation, a point of contention for advocates who seek a more inclusive regulatory framework. Additionally, DeSantis warned that legalization could harm tourism, despite evidence from other states suggesting otherwise.
Mixed Polling Results and Fluctuating Public Opinion
Polling for Amendment 3 has fluctuated throughout the election cycle. While some surveys have shown majority support, they consistently hover around or just below the 60% mark needed to pass. An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey from last month reported exactly 60% support, and a September poll from the Florida Chamber of Commerce indicated 57% support, leaving the measure in a precarious position. The latest Victory Insights poll suggests that while support is strong, it may ultimately fall just short of the necessary threshold.
Broader Political Implications
Amendment 3 has become a focal point in Florida’s political landscape, with state and national figures weighing in. Some GOP legislators, like Rep. Brian Mast, co-chair of the Congressional Cannabis Caucus, have predicted the amendment’s success, while others, including Rep. Matt Gaetz and Rep. Byron Donalds, have expressed opposition. Critics within the GOP have also raised concerns over the use of taxpayer dollars for anti-cannabis public service announcements, leading to a lawsuit challenging the ads, though the case was dismissed.
As the final days before Election Day approach, Amendment 3’s fate remains uncertain. With an electorate that appears largely in favor of legalization but split on whether this measure is the right approach, the results could hinge on undecided voters and last-minute shifts in public sentiment.
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